Wah the COE market this year really got drama one.
Every month like watching F1 cars racing to break new record. From August all the way till October, prices keep flying higher and higher.
Then finally, October second round gave everyone a small break.
But still, prices now really siao one.
Let us look at the numbers and figure out what is going on with all these “Cat A elephants”.
COE Price Comparison (August to October 2025)
Month | Cat A | Cat B | Cat C | Cat D | Cat E | Total COEs | Estimated Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7 Aug | $102,009 | $123,498 | $70,001 | $9,189 | $122,344 | 3,141 | $285m |
21 Aug | $104,524 | $124,400 | $72,190 | $8,809 | $125,001 | 3,126 | $305m |
3 Sep | $107,889 | $127,501 | $71,556 | $9,101 | $127,901 | 3,144 | $296m |
18 Sep | $119,003 | $136,890 | $72,501 | $9,209 | $140,502 | 3,133 | $320m |
8 Oct | $128,105 | $141,000 | $74,301 | $9,810 | $140,009 | 3,148 | $339m |
23 Oct | $122,000 | $131,889 | $76,801 | $9,389 | $136,000 | 3,149 | $323m |
From these six rounds, the government already pulled in close to $1.86 billion . That is around half a billion a month, adding up to about $5 to $6 billion a year.
That is some serious revenue just from our car ownership dreams.
Why the Madness
This time, the biggest reason for the spike is all about the Electric Vehicle Early Adoption Incentive (EEAI) and the Vehicle Emissions Scheme (VES).
Both together can give EV buyers rebates of up to $40,000.
Mid September 2025 the news came out to "remind" us the incentive is going to be reduced.
That is a huge deal, especially when everyone wants to be early before the EEAI gets cut down after December 2025.
And here’s the catch.
You see all your super sonic Tesla, BYD Sealion 7, MG4, and even some Polestar models, all purposely tune their motor output to fit nicely under Cat A.
Technically, Cat A is supposed to be for smaller, less powerful cars below 110 kW, but these brands power tune their cars just to qualify.
So now Cat A not small car category anymore, it become elephant category.
All the big, powerful EVs squeeze inside, and the demand explode.
Now, Cat A prices are almost catching up with Cat B. Just a few thousand dollars difference between them.
It is crazy because Cat B used to be meant for all the bigger and faster cars.
Now, small cars and “fake Cat A” EVs are fighting in the same pool.
Why the Drop in October
credits: sgcarmart
The slight drop we saw this month came because the EV rush finally slowed down.
Most EVs need 4 to 8 weeks for delivery. If you buy today, your car will only be registered after January 2026, which means you lose the full $40,000 rebate.
I think prices might cool further, maybe down to around $100,000 by the end of the year, once the rush to secure the rebate dies down.
Why COE Still Works for the Government
Painful for us, but smart for Ah Gong.
The COE system keeps the car population under control and earns billions in the process. Every month, around $500m comes in. That means over $5 billion a year, which is roughly 1% of Singapore’s GDP.
In comparison, GST brings in around $20 billion a year, or 3.3% of GDP.
That means COE alone generates about one-third of GST revenue.
The beauty is that this money mostly comes from people who already can afford cars, like a luxury tax that funds everything from road maintenance to bus subsidies.
What It Means for Drivers
For us normal folks, the reality is this.
Car prices will stay high, no matter what we hope for. People who already own a car will hold on longer.
The second-hand market will stay hot. Families thinking of buying a car will likely wait until next year, praying for some miracle drop.
Even the cheapest cars in Singapore like Suzuki Swift or BYD Dolphin now cost $140,000 to $150,000.
Without COE, the car body is only worth $30,000 to $40,000. The rest is just paper value.
And Public Transport
Of course, one might say, “Never mind lah, just take MRT or bus.” But guess what, public transport fares just went up again.
So whether you drive or commute, either way your wallet sure lighter one.
Nightmare or Genius?
COE may feel like a nightmare for drivers, but it is genius for the system.
It keeps cars in check, funds big parts of the national budget, and still attracts bids round after round.
The only thing is, with all these “elephant EVs” sneaking into Cat A, the line between small cars and big beasts is almost gone.
Hopefully, once the EV rebates drop, the market will calm down a bit.
Till then, we just wait, watch... and pray next month’s COE results will finally bring us good news.